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Who is winning the presidential election? What the polls show today

USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida

Updated Nov. 5, 2024, 11:11 a.m. ET

Polls are officially open across Florida for Election Day, closing at 7 p.m. Between mail-in ballots and early voting in the state, there have already been over 8 million votes counted.

The race for the Oval Office is tight, with various national polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump leading one another by a slight difference. In Florida, several polls show that Trump will nab the state's 30 electoral votes.

Here is what the polls and odds say now with one day left until Election Day.

Things to keep in mind about polling

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population, USA TODAY reports.

When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.

Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds now?

Former President Donald Trump, left in Macon, Ga., and Vice President Kamala Harris, right on the campus of Michigan State University in East Lansing, Mich., hold rallies in the final days before Election Day.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, at 10 a.m.

270towin

270towin, a website that offers an interactive map of the Electoral College, shows Harris currently leading Trump by 1.2%. This has increased from yesterday by 0.1%

The website's poll for Florida shows Trump leading Harris by 6.2%.

ABC News project 538

ABC News project 538 shows Harris has a slight edge over Trump, with 48.1% compared to 46.9%.

According to ABC News, the website provides an updated average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects.

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls.

The Economist

In their final update for The Economist's forecast of the presidential election, they found that Harris’s chances of winning rose from 50% to 56%. Of the 67 surveys released yesterday, 44 gave Harris better numbers than what their forecast previously expected.

But even with that lead The Economist still didn't feel like the margin was decisive.

"Her newfound lead is small enough that it can barely be called a lead at all, and it would be no surprise if Donald Trump wins by a decisive margin," they wrote. "But Ms. Harris is widely seen to have had a stronger week to end the campaign than Mr. Trump did, and the last batch of polls to enter our model bears that out."

Polymarket

Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing growing odds by the betting public, shows Trump head over Harris by roughly 25%. During the morning of the election, Trump is at 62.3% over Harris' 37.9%.

Realclearpolling

Realclearpolling, a website that shares up-to-date 2024 election polls, shares that betting odds are currently in Trump's favor with a spread of +0.1.

Reuters/Ipsos

An Oct. 29 poll by Reuters/Ipsos shows Harris having a 1-point lead over Trump.

"The three-day poll, completed on Sunday, showed the race effectively tied ahead of the Nov. 5 election. The poll had a margin of error of about three percentage points in either direction," the poll states.

Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR)

According to Stetson University's poll, Trump has a notable lead over Harris among likely Florida voters.

The survey, conducted between Oct. 25 and Nov. 1, revealed Trump ahead by 7 points, securing support from 53% of likely voters compared to 46% for Harris.

The poll surveyed 452 likely voters, with results weighted by age, ethnicity, race, gender, education, party affiliation, and geography to reflect the state’s historical voting patterns. The survey has a credibility interval of +/- 5%.

Allan Lichtman reveals 2024 presidential pick

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump.

According to USA TODAY, Lichtman uses a set of 13 "keys" to make his picks, ranging from economic indicators to candidates' charisma.

Lichtman, 77, has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

Here's what to know about Election Day in Florida today

➤ Live updates for Lee County:Get the latest for the Fort Myers area here.

➤ Live updates for Collier County:Get the latest for the Naples area here.

➤ Live updates for Sarasota County:Get the latest for the Sarasota-Manatee-Bradenton area here.

➤ Live updates for Brevard County:Get the latest for Melbourne and other areas of the Space Coast.

➤ Live updates for Volusia County:Get the latest for the Daytona Beach area here.

➤ Live updates for Marion County: Get the latest for the Ocala area here.

➤ Updates for Lake County:Get the latest for the Leesburg area here.

➤ Live updates for Polk County:Get the latest for the Lakeland area here.

➤ Live updates for Palm Beach County:Get the latest for the West Palm Beach area here.

Where to vote in Florida: Where is the Election Day 2024 polling place voting location near me?

Here’s a list of each Florida county and their corresponding voter precinct lookup links, pulled from Voter.org:

Contributing: Rachel Barber and Rebecca Morin, USA TODAY

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