Who's ahead in the presidential race right now? Polls, odds show tight race

Election Day is one week away as the presidential candidates try to rally more voters and sway the undecided and according to the polls and odds the lead in the race is shifting.

Two months worth of national polls continue to shown Vice President Kamala Harris in the lead, however the lead has continued to shrink week to week as former president Donald Trump has been gaining ground and even taken the lead in some of the crucial swing states — likely to determine the race.

Here is what the polls, odds say now with one week left — and how they've changed over the past two months — as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Who is leading in the polls and favored by the odds now?

• ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.1% over Trump 46.6% — compared to last week Harris 48.2% over Trump 46.4%, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 46.1% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48% over Trump 47.3% three weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump at 43.7%  nine weeks ago.
• 270towin shows Harris holding the smallest lead in the national polls by 0.9% over Trump — compared 1.5% over Trump last week, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump two weeks ago, compared Harris 2.8% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump to eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump  nine weeks ago.
• realclearpolling shows the betting odds have flipped to Trump's favor by +0.3% spread over Harris — compared to Harris over Trump by +0.8 last week, compared to Harris favored by +1.7 two weeks ago, compared to a tie between Harris and Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +1.8 four weeks ago, compared to Harris favored by +2.3 five weeks ago, compared to Harris favored +2.0 six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 eight weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 nine weeks ago.
• Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing growing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump 60% over Harris 42% — compared to last week's Trump 64.1% over Harris 36.0%, compared Trump 56.3% over Harris 43.1% two weeks ago, compared to Trump 52.8% over Harris 46.7% three weeks ago, compared with Harris favored over Trump by 2% four weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% seven weeks ago, compared to Trump over Harris by 4% eight weeks ago, or compared to Harris over Trump by 1% nine weeks ago.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024, at 8:30 a.m.

How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?

The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different audiences can often draw higher margins for error.

According to Pew Research, confidence in the public opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020.

In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the appeal of Republican Donald Trump.