What polls, oddsmakers say about Harris-Trump race

The countdown to Election Day 2024 is on with just over two months left of campaigning.

While there are many local and state races to be voted on, the biggest question is: "Who will be the 47th president of the United States?"

The vice presidential candidates are chosen, the national convention celebrations are over and all eyes and ears are focused on next week's debate.

The first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled for Tuesday night, Sept. 10.

President Joe Biden dropped out of the race shortly after the first presidential debate on June 27 against Trump.

Will Trump be returned to the White House with J.D. Vance at his side or will Harris become the first female president with progressive partner Tim Walz at her side?

The answer to those questions depends on whom you ask and which polls you read.

Who is leading in the polls and favored in the odds?

• ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% compared to one week ago - Harris 47.0% to Trump at 43.7%
• 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.7% over Trump compared to one week ago - Harris 1.9% over Trump
• realclearpolling shows the betting odds are in Harris' favor with a spread of +1.8 over Trump compared to one week ago - Harris +1.7 over Trump
• Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform is expressing odds by the betting public, in favor of Trump over Harris by 4% compared to one week ago - Harris was leading by 1% point over Trump.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024 at 10 a.m.

How accurate have election odds or polls been in past presidential elections?

The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record on polling is more challenging as different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins for error.

According to Pew Research, confidence in the public's opinion polling has suffered given the errors in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020. In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.