Is this Luke Clanton's week? John Deere Classic odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Following a dramatic finish in Sunday's Rocket Classic, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Deere Run for the 2025 John Deere Classic. The first round from Silvis, Ill., begins on Thursday morning as Davis Thompson looks to defend his title at this event. Below, we look at John Deere Classic odds from BetMGM Sportsbook's odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Most of the game's top players are getting ready for the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush in 2 weeks, so they're taking this week off before playing in the Scottish Open next week. The red-hot Ben Griffin is the favorite to win in Silvis at +1400, with Jason Day (+2200), Denny McCarthy (+2500) and Michael Thorbjornsen (+2800) near the top of the board, as well. Thompson is +2500 to repeat as the champion.

TPC Deere Run (par 72) is 7,289 yards long and began hosting this event in 2000. It's a traditional layout with tree-lined fairways and larger greens, typically leading to low scores. The winner has been 18-under or better each year since 2010, with Thompson finishing 28-under last year in his victory.

John Deere Classic – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7:23 p.m. ET.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+2800)

Thorbjornsen is due for his first win soon with the way he's been playing this season. He has 3 top-5 finishes in his last 6 starts alone, including a T-4 at the Rocket Classic where he missed out on a playoff by 1 shot. He finished second here last year and 17th in 2023, proving to have a good feel for the layout at TPC Deere Run.

Denny McCarthy (+2500)

McCarthy comes into this event having finished sixth twice and seventh once in the last 3 years alone, riding a hot streak at TPC Deere Run. His putting is exceptional once again this year, ranking 9th in SG: putting in 2025. In his last start at the Travelers Championship, he finished T-12 at 8-under par.

John Deere Classic picks – Contender(s)

Alex Smalley (+4000)

Smalley missed the cut last week, but in the event prior he finished T-13 at the RBC Canadian Open, which had a fairly strong field. Though he missed the cut in this event last year, he finished 47th, 16th and second in his previous 3 starts, so he's come close to winning here before.

Luke Clanton (+4000)

Clanton has shown a lot of promise in his young career and this is a good week to back him in a field that isn't exactly loaded. He finished second here last year and gained 3.19 strokes off the tee, which is an exceptional number. He doesn't have any glaring weaknesses in his game and despite not having a top-20 since the Cognizant Classic in March, he's still trending up and could be nearing a win.

John Deere Classic picks – Long shot(s)

Adam Schenk (+12500)

Schenk has had a tough year, missing the cut 10 times in 18 starts. However, he does have 2 top-10s and 4 top-25s, one of which came at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson where he finished T-5. What makes him an intriguing play this week at +12500 is his course history; he finished fourth twice and sixth once in 3 starts from 2019-23.

Sami Valimaki (+8000)

Valimaki is eighth in SG: putting this season, an important stat at a course where scores are going to be remarkably low. He came in 12th in this event last year and will try to put together another strong week in Silvis this time around.

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